China PCR test orders
soared before first confirmed COVID case
Report on government contracts show surges in Wuhan-area purchases from May 2019
Masaya Kato. Nikkei Asia. (Oct. 5, 2021). Retrieved from: https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/China-PCR-test-orders-soared-before-first-confirmed-COVID-case
Excerpts:
TOKYO -- Purchases of PCR tests in China's Hubei Province surged months before the first official reports of a novel coronavirus case there, according to a report by Australia-based cybersecurity company Internet 2.0.
About 67.4 million yuan ($10.5 million at current rates) was spent on PCR tests in Hubei during 2019, nearly double the 2018 total, with the upswing starting in May, according to the report.
Internet 2.0 collected and analyzed data from a
website that aggregates information on public procurement bids in China. The
analysis team consists of former officials from intelligence agencies in the
U.S., the U.K., Australia, and other countries.
PCR, or polymerase chain reaction, tests
are used to detect the presence of a particular genetic sequence in a sample,
and they have applications beyond COVID-19 testing. But the report alleges the
unusual uptick likely signals awareness of a new disease spreading in and
around Wuhan, the capital of Hubei Province.
Orders doubled from universities, jumped fivefold
from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and surged tenfold
from animal testing bureaus. Purchases from hospitals declined by more than
10%.
Monthly procurement data shows a spike in orders in
May, especially from CDC buyers and the People's Liberation Army.
"We believe the increased spending in May
suggests this as the earliest start date for possible infection," the
report said.
Purchases rose sharply from July through October as well, in particular from the Wuhan University of Science and Technology. The institution spent 8.92 million yuan on PCR tests in 2019, about eight times its total for the previous year.
The university, along with local hospitals and public health authorities, plays a direct role in responding to outbreaks of new diseases, according to the report.
The involvement of these groups provides evidence
that "the increase of purchasing was most likely linked to the emergence
of COVID-19 in Hubei Province in 2019," the report said. "We assess
with high confidence that the pandemic began much earlier than China informed
the [World Health Organization] about COVID-19."
China's Foreign Ministry disputed the findings. In a response to Bloomberg News, a spokesperson said the findings fall into the same category as other dubious claims about the origins of the coronavirus, including a "so-called paper" that analyzed traffic volumes near several hospitals in Wuhan and searched for the keywords "cough" and "diarrhea" before concluding that the outbreak began in Wuhan as early as August 2019.
Beijing told the WHO that the first symptomatic case was recorded Dec. 8, 2019. But some in the U.S. allege that the virus was circulating in humans before then, with claims that it leaked from a research laboratory.
"We can't say for sure with just" the public procurement information, said Akira Igata, a visiting professor at Tama Graduate School of Business in Tokyo who examined that data independently, "but it's strong information for making the case that there was awareness of a virus outbreak around Wuhan several months to half a year before that December."
Satellite images from Wuhan hospital parking lots show a sharp
increase in activity starting in August 2019, according to a study last year by
researchers from Harvard and other institutions. But a report in August by U.S.
intelligence agencies found no confirmation as to whether the disease spilled
over from an animal host or leaked from a lab.
"There has been no sharing of usable data from China regarding how and when COVID-19 started," said David Robinson, one of the authors of the latest report. "Zero transparency has fueled a lot of hypothesis, theory, misinformation as well as heartache for the victims."
Citation
C4D Canadians 4 Democracy (Oct. 5, 2021). SARS-CoV-2 Novel Coronavirus: Origins and Timeline - Intelligence reports - May and August 2019 in China. Retrieved from: https://c4d-canadians4democracy.blogspot.com/2021/10/sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-origins.html.
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